History Rhymes Again.

I'd thought this week to look at why Scotland, as a small nation, would be better placed to manage the tribulations of a degenerating global economy than it would as part of an ill-fated UK, and why large, complex entities, whether countries or organisations, would increasingly begin to fail and fragment as the future unfolds. However, last week's acquisition by UKIP of a third Scottish seat in the European elections has put me in mind to divert briefly towards another subject: the lurch rightward seen both here and abroad. It is in part a consequence of the new reality that western nations must learn to operate in, and the worrying uptake of reactionary politics we're seeing shows that precious little learning is yet to be evidenced.

On the morning after the results in England's local elections were known I tweeted the following, only in part seriously:

“Looking a bit 1930s down there. Pray we're not seeing the birth of Nazi England.”

England is, of course, a very long way from the madness that overtook Germany in the early part of this century, nor is it likely to come anywhere near to it anytime soon - but the parallels are there, which is what I was thinking when I sent those two sentences off into the twitterverse. They're also parallels that some are unwilling or unable to see, since that one whimsical tweet got me blocked by one user, who also replied with a scathing “Get a grip!”. Oh well - such is the nature of conveying a thought into 140 characters. Nevertheless, it was retweeted a number of times by others, so some perhaps understood where I was coming from.

The similarity of our present moment in history to some of the events of the 1930s is noticeable, which is in essence all I was trying to say. This was the time of the Great Depression - the brutal economic malaise which followed the stock market crash of 1929 and was only eased a decade later when the world's factories went into overdrive to supply the combatants of the second world war. Very recently we experienced another financial crash, its origins – greed, overconfidence, lack of banking and stock market regulation – again similar to the causes of the 1929 crash. The decade of hardship that followed the '29 crash brought forth many of the things that are again coming to prominence now – soup kitchens, food banks, unemployment, increased homelessness and poverty, and sadly, a surge of bluster from the practitioners of ultra right-wing policy.

Then.....                           .....and now.

More to the point perhaps is that such practitioners are more likely to be listened to and taken seriously when times are hard. When the populace is experiencing economic pain, when jobs are growing scarce in lockstep with increases to the cost of living, desperate people become more likely to listen to voices they would have previously ignored and more willing to accept policies they would normally have rebelled against. The uncertainty such economic climates create breeds fear, and fear is a valuable tool for those with an agenda to push through. As is the tool of scapegoating – the setting up of a group or groups of individuals to take the blame for society's ills, either to serve as a distraction from those that are genuinely causing the problems or for whatever other motive those in power may have.

The actions of the UK's right-wing coalition government are light-years away from the horrors of a certain regime of the 1930s, but some of their techniques are from the same hymn sheet. The use of a difficult economy to allow the introduction of preferred policy is one example – in our case a program of austerity that penalises the poor and disadvantaged while preserving and enhancing the wealth of the few, many of whom are in fact the most culpable for the problems in the first place. And of course there is scapegoating - benefit recipients are demonised on a daily basis with accusations of fraud when in fact the cost to the treasury due to tax avoidance is many multiples of times higher.

So we come back to the rise of UKIP and others like it around the globe, dragging with them their reptilian-brained ideas and prejudices, right on time for the beginning of a new era of global adversity. Their brand of bigotry and narrow-minded isolationism cannot exist in a climate of prosperity and plenty, such as the times we are now leaving behind in latter half of the twentieth century. The future waiting in the wings, a future of declining wealth and energy availability, is the weakening body in which their type of cancer grows. As the new century progresses, they and their kind could bubble up out of the cesspit of humanity's darker ideas more often than most would like.

The marked difference in UKIP's popularity in England and Scotland shows quite clearly that we are a nation that overwhelmingly rejects their type of rhetoric; we must be careful that this remains so in a challenging future. That will be a task made all the more difficult while we remain chained to a system of government that is rapidly embracing policies and parties with ever more rightward leanings. Scotland is an outward-looking, European nation with a left-of-centre culture; to preserve it we must take charge of it and do our best to keep it nurtured in the hard years ahead. That is a task that will need careful management and fresh ideas in a world undergoing profound change.

I think we are up to it. We showed the world a new, alternative path before; we can do it again. How about the Scottish Enlightenment part two, starting September 2014?

Lifeboat Scotland.

The common conception of the future held by the average westerner is one which has been molded by their knowledge of recent centuries, by popular culture, and by their own day to day experiences. It is an expectation of continuous economic growth and technological progress, of greater living standards and life expectancy. Each of us is embedded in a culture which promotes this view constantly, and few question it.

But what if it's a myth? What if the extraordinary rate of progress our civilisation has sustained over the 19^th and 20^th centuries is a temporary blip, one about to slow and possibly stall as the 21^st unfurls? Progress requires funding, and it should not have escaped your notice that governments are running into problems with money.

There are many self-inflicted reasons for our economic difficulties – fraud, corruption and incompetence in the financial sector being central. But lurking behind our economic problems are our planet's lowering reserves of fossil fuel. Oil is the one must-have super-resource of the modern world. Without it, nothing works. More to the point, without it at an affordable price, nothing works. The hyper-complex, warehouse-on-wheels, just-in-time economy we've built up over the preceding decades was developed on the back of cheap oil, during a period of time when the global oil supply was in constant growth. With it, the ready supply of money in the form of cheap loans was also in constant growth, and consequently the economy and the people benefiting from it prospered. Progress and innovation followed easily as there was excess money to invest in it.

With the peak in conventional (easy and cheap ) oil production now in the rear-view mirror, growing the oil supply means going after unconventional (hard and expensive) sources. That is why we are now seeing deep-water oil extraction (remember the ill-fated DeepwaterHorizon?), the race for the arctic, and the craze for fracking everything in sight. We're moving into a period of history where the average oil price will remain consistently high, and our global economy, reared on the dummy-teat of cheap oil, is developing a considerable case of indigestion. In years to come, as price spikes climb higher and averages follow, more of the complex world around us will run into difficulty. As our established infrastructure ages, we'll have to pour more money into maintaining what's there already and less into new ventures, and all the while from a shrinking resource base. Hence progress slows and stagnates.

A look around at the news of the past few years should be enough to signal that something is going wrong. The global economy has been in the doldrums now for some time - businesses are closing, unemployment is rising, and government cuts to welfare programs and services bite ever deeper. The gap between the rich and poor in the UK has risen to levels not seen since the second world war as the coalition's austerity program clamps down harder. Meanwhile, some the few growth industries of note are defence contractors and suppliers to the military; illegal wars and occupations in the middle east are the other hallmark of recent times, a region of the planet noted, unsurprisingly, for its abundance of black gold. There can be no doubt that the West's interference with and occupations in these areas are to ensure it never misses its fix while denying its competitors theirs.

All of this can only exacerbate in the years to come. The 21st century will be nothing like what we experienced in the 20^th in terms of increasing affluence and standards of living. On the contrary, our economic difficulties can only intensify, and must be responded to with an entirely new way of thinking. For that, we need an entirely new leadership and system of government. Obsessed with maintaining business as usual at all costs, systemically venal and beholden to corporate interests, Westminster is already a relic of a past world. It is, simply, unfit for purpose in the 21^st century. Its failures can only mount until it finally collapses or sinks into irrelevancy as the people of the UK learn to fend for themselves. To aid them, local governments may have to learn to step up to the plate and take on more responsibility.

We are fortunate in Scotland then that we already have an alternative government – one that is currently asking for more responsibility. I believe it may have it sooner or later, irrespective of the referendum result. Nevertheless, I'd much rather it had it sooner while we still have some time to prepare for an unexpected future; while there is a chance - however slim that may be - of electing the right people for the job of steering into it.

There is nothing to say that the Scottish government might not suffer the same fate as Westminster in time, if it is allowed to be captured by the same forces of greed. But I believe that it will fare better, imbued as it is with the energy of youth and hopefully soon to be unleashed with the full powers of independence. Not to mention its modern structure, unburdened by the stifling weight of farcical, outmoded tradition and the unreformable antiques display otherwise known as the house of lords.

The Scottish government deserves a chance to show what it can achieve with full independence. It should have that chance now, while the global economy is functioning more or less as we have known it. Time is not on our side – another nosedive, similar to or worse than 2008, could be imminent. The fraud and illegality in the world's financial system was not fixed after the last crash – if anything it has only been encouraged, setting us up for something far worse. Who knows what conditions we'll face on the other side of the next slide down.

RMS Westminster, steaming at flank speed in iceberg infested waters, is doing nothing and will do nothing to avert another economic plunge. A No vote could see Scotland sink to the depths with it. A Yes vote does not guarantee a better fate, but if we are vigilant and follow with a careful selection of the right government with the right policies, we can give ourselves a fighting chance of navigating the treacherous waters ahead.

As a small nation, an independent Scotland will be best placed to steer through the years ahead. The next post will look at why in a de-globalising future small is best, and too big will fail.

Executive Decision

When I first thought of doing this blog, initially my thought was to write about the three global issues I mentioned in my introduction post, with a twist of how that impacts on Scotland. But I soon realised that this would be a waste of my time (and probably yours). Huge volumes have already been written on resource depletion, climate change and the woes of the global economy. Spend a short time googling these topics (in particular the biggest of them all perhaps - peak oil) and you'll find a wealth of information at your fingertips. See "global issues" to the right; these are among my favourite sources. I can't stress enough what an excellent resource the crash course series of videos on YouTube is. It's free to watch and comes in mostly bite-size pieces - it'll have you up to speed in no time.

So – executive decision. There's no point in me re-hashing what has been written before by many different writers. I believe the intention for this blog needs to be flipped on its head towards something that focuses on the little part of the world I know best: Scotland, with a twist of what these global issues mean for us and our future. And in particular, what they mean when viewed through the prism of the impending independence referendum. Time is, after all, marching on, and these are issues that I've not seen applied in the context of the referendum yet. And believe me, I spend a lot of time reading about the referendum! Please inform me in the comments if there's something I've missed – I'd love to see it.

In fact, I'm bringing these arguments rather late to the party. I could have started this blog months ago but I wrestled for a long time with whether I should. These issues do not make for light reading. It's possible when trawling around the internet for articles on peak oil and climate change to turn the bleakness dial all the way up to 11, and the Yes campaign for Scotland's independence has always been one of positivity and hope. I was uncomfortable with souring the tone.

But awareness is half the battle. Being more aware of what we face is another crucial reason to have the freedom to re-invent Scotland as a response to it. There is no reason why the same positivity and hope we see in the Yes campaign cannot be diverted to another cause post-independence: the cause of transition to sustainability. We want independence for the good of generations to come. Our work must go on until we have a country fit for these generations to thrive in.

The three Es (energy, environment, economy) are issues that will impact every part of the world – including ours. How we deal with them, whether as an independent country or as part of the UK, is vitally important. I believe we have an incredible opportunity, with the possibility of independence before us, to begin building a new, resilient nation that can face these issues head-on and begin to tackle them in a way that few others could. We have reserves of oil and we have a massive potential for renewable energy. How many other countries can claim that and have the chance to re-imagine themselves – to set themselves up in a way that is optimal to face a problematic future?

I can't remember the particular article I was reading when I made the connection that peak oil and the demise of the global economy could have a direct tie to Scotland's eventual independence, but I do remember the gist - that economic collapse will lead to political collapse. In other words, when the economy fails hard enough, governments get thrown out. Change can and will happen. Sometimes that change can be quite radical in nature. Sometimes it may even lead to the break-up of nation states and the re-configuration of national boundaries.

So should September deliver a No vote, a break-up of the UK may be possible, even likely, in the years to come anyway. But what if the UK manages to hang together? Is it not possible that the UK will eventually be forced to address these issues? Should we not confront them together anyway, pooling our strength and resources, a key unionist argument?

I don't think so. For a start time is too short, and the UK is already mortally wounded. With a debt load of over £1.2 trillion (watch it spin here), the UK is simply unsustainable. The UK economy is one huge game of spinning plates, kept aloft by the manipulation and chicanery of a cohort of financial tricksters in London. Sooner or later (likely sooner) it will come crashing down, most likely torpedoed by the superheated London property market.

Einstein said “We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.” Leaving our fate in hands of the same London establishment that got us where we are is not going to extricate us from the predicaments we face, nor will they prepare us for the difficult future barreling down towards us. They are hopelessly and institutionally corrupt, a cartel of self-interested careerists who long ago dispelled any notion of public service, if it was ever there to begin with. They are obsessed with sucking all wealth in towards them like a financial black sun, in full knowledge, I'm sure, of the uncertainty to come. As for us, as far as they're concerned it's every man, woman and child for themselves.

So be it. In Scotland we have this incredible opportunity. We have to prepare ourselves, and so we must have the ability to elect who we choose to have any chance of doing so. And only by delivering the shock therapy to the London power-money that Scottish independence will deliver can we hope to open a window to the kind of change the rest of these isles desperately needs.

I hope to post at least weekly. In the next post I'd like to put forward the opinion that the future we're about to have served to us is not what is commonly expected, and why the UK is unfit for purpose within it.

Hello.

My name is Gus Steedman. For more than twenty years, I have made my living writing computer programs. Writing for machines. During all that time though, I'd rather have been writing for people. Time to get started.

Since 2004 I have been a near-insatiable consumer of a certain type of blog. Almost every day, I would spend my lunch hour and sometimes evenings avidly searching for and devouring any new post from my selected group of authors, my growing obsession soon expanding to books, podcasts and documentary films. About time then, I thought recently, that I should create a blog of my own with my own perspective on these subjects - particularly since my perspective may be unique. I am a Scot living at a pivotal time for Scotland. I am a sufferer of secondary progressive MS, my own gradual loss of function a strange analogy for a planet and civilisation also in decline.

 Er... say what?!

Now for the difficult part. Unless you're very wealthy, or have just not been paying attention, you may have noticed that since the start of this century, and especially since the financial crash of 2008, a lot of things in the world around us have been starting to... well, suck. The poor are getting poorer. The rich are getting richer. Wars and other atrocities flare up with mindless regularity. Inequality is rising. Cuts are being made to welfare programs and salaries (except for bankers). Oh, and jobs are disappearing. Even the shitty ones.

There's many reasons for all this. A corrupt and rapacious financial sector, matched equally by selfish and nefarious government is the obvious one. While this is an important subject, there are three things that underlie it; that may even go some way to explaining it. They are:

1. Resource depletion
2. Global economic collapse
3. Accelerating climate change

These three subjects, in my opinion and in many much more qualified others', will come to be the defining hammer blows of the 21st century. Yet the mainstream media covers each to varying degrees. In particular the first gets barely any mention at all, while many of the bleakest details of the others are glossed over or ignored. Understandable perhaps - there aren't many feelgood stories to be found here when the facts are fully explored. However we owe it to ourselves to confront the growing precariousness of our situation; we cannot prepare for the future that is now unfolding otherwise. It is a future that is likely to be very different to the vision of continuous progress and technological improvement that we all take for granted. We hear often that flying cars and vacations in space are right around the corner. I'm afraid they're most likely not, so one use I have in mind for this blog to share why I think that way.

The other use is to present my views on Scottish independence. In September this year, we have a vote to decide yes or no to the restoration of our sovereignty. I will be voting yes, for all the many great reasons put forth by the Yes campaign and the amazing grassroots movement I'm honoured to feel part of. But I have another reason - one perhaps not commonly voiced. My study of the global issues above has led me to believe that as the coming years and decades unfold, the nations and states we know now will inevitably fragment and collapse.

In my opinion, Scotland's independence in the midst of the coming global maelstrom is unavoidable, despite the referendum result. A no vote simply delays the inevitable, and takes us there down a chaotic, difficult path as the UK increasingly fails around us. Far better to vote yes now and take a chance at managing our way to being a small nation fit for the many difficult challenges of the 21st century.

The future is local, not global. I'll detail what I mean by that in future posts. And as for Scotland, what is independence if not a re-localisation of government?

Back soon, and thanks for reading.


For a headstart in many of the issues mentioned above, Chris Martenson's crash course series of videos on YouTube is highly recommended.